Too close for comfort……
October 26, 2012
Man-O-Man was that an intense football game last Sunday in Foxboro or WHAT? Everyone was pretty chill until there was about five minutes left in the game and the Jets scored 13-points in a matter of four minutes and some change to take the lead 26-23. Balk. In years past, with 1:42 left in regulation, no problem, Brady has always been money in those situations. But there is a some rust on the fourth quarter antics for the Pats, and a couple of times this year (week 2, week 3 and week 6; specifically), they lost games in the fourth, rocking my confidence in their ability to close. Week 7 was GOOD 29-26 Patriot victory….WHEW. Those darn Jets…..Arrrgghhhh……aren’t they though?
This Sunday at 1:00 PM will find our Patriots in St. Louie as 7-point road favorites. I don’t want Bob to yell at me again about not having faith and stuff, BUT….. hear me out Bob, I’m just using my own little FB logic….. head not heart….. The Rams have only lost one game at home this season and that was last week’s 20-30 loss to a rebounding Packers Team. The only other team to beat the Rams by more than four-points this season was Chicago and that was in the windy city in Week 3. The numbers don’t lie. The Rams are 5-2 ATS – - so again this week, I’m going to guess that the Pats will win but not cover the spread….and hope they prove me wrong.
This week, the Jets host Miami as 1-point home favorites. Wow….the book has as much confidence in the men in green as I do…..unfortunately, I think the Jets win this one. My fingers are starting to melt just from typing those words……aaaaahhhh.
Tonight, for Thursday Night Football, Tampa Bay will travel to Minnesota as 5.5-point road dogs and I am Torn. Whereas the Vikings are undefeated at home thus far this year, and Tampa is 0-2 on the road, I am thinking the complete opposite of what I said above. Tampa Bay suffered a tough 35-28 loss last week at home to the Saints, and every yard was hard fought and valiantly played. Minny, also at home, beat Arizona 21-14……but, between the three Trends listed below and the fact that TB beat Minny last year 24-20, I’m thinking of taking the points. One of those gut calls….tonight will help me gauge my luck/skill for Sunday’s games….so, if Minny obliterates TB tonight, disregard all picks below.
* Buccaneers are 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Home team is 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 meetings.
* Buccaneers are 13-6-1 ATS in their last 20 road games.
* Vikings are 2-5-1 ATS in their last eight home games.
There aren’t really a whole heck of a lot of great eye catching match-ups this week…the few that piqued my interest are: Washington @ Pittsburgh; Giants @ Dallas and Sunday night NO @ Denver.
First, Washington at Pittsburgh as 4.5-point road dogs. The Redskins are 2-2 on the road and Pittsburgh is 2-0 at home this year. Considering the Steelers only had two home games so far this year, I hate to admit that they will probably win. Although Washington has been a pretty feisty team, and have proven to play tough the full 60 minutes – 64% of the public money is on the Redskins and that makes me lean toward the bee men.
The Giants go to Dallas as 1-point favorites which shows that Vegas doesn’t know who’s going to prevail, although 72% of the public is on NY……tricky bookie, take the Boys.
Sunday night, New Orleans will travel to a “fresh off the Bye” Denver as 6-point road dogs. Huh. Well, the Saints won a game, had a Bye and won a game…..and the Broncos lost a game, won a game and had a Bye…which tells me absolutely nothing. I like Denver to win, but don’t know about that 6-points….similar to the Pats, I think that’s a lot of chalk for an inconsistent team. The only thing is, when Denver wins, they win by a good chunk of points…..but on the other hand, the Saints seem to be taking all criticisms about their losses and churning them into full blown motivational butter. Tough call.
Monday night, San Fran goes to Arizona as 6.5-point road favorites. I like Arizona and the points. The 49ers only have two losses under their belt, but they were significant losses; 13-24 in Minny week 3 and 26-3 hosting the Giants two weeks ago. The Cardinals started the season hot-to-trot but then fizzled and died the past three consecutive weeks, losing by 14, 3 and 7-points respectively….with only the middle loss at home against the Bills. IDK, I guess I’m playing it safe taking the points….I’m really wishy washy today so it makes it difficult to commit.
I hope Sunday brings us sunshine and mega-points. Enjoy your weekend and get stop eating all the Halloween candy!
Picks: TB +6.5; Denver -6; Arizona +6.5; Dallas +1; Pitts -4.5 (I don’t love this pick)