Jolly Good Show in London……………
November 2, 2012
Following the only points the Rams scored last Sunday, Tom Brady got the ball and said “Heck No”, and then proceeded to lead the offense to four straight TD’s in the first half and immediately threw another to start the 3rd. Very Impressive 45-3 W.
Last week, the Patriot Offense broke a record with 350+ yards of Offense in 17 consecutive games. Ironically, the record was previously held by Kurt Warner and the Rams aka “The Greatest Show on Turf” and set during the 1999-2000 season. Well, at least the Rams had that, very shortly afterward, NE came along – Superbowl contenders ….the underdogs, without a shot – only to Stun the World with a powerful Super Bowl W ….and very soon following, the Rams were no more.
By the way, did anyone catch the camera blooper when the referee went to explain a flag and stood with his back to the cameras? He realized his mistake, turned around and explained the flag – and the talking heads said that everything was backward in London….the cameras? Huh? Why? What’s the point?……. It just seems so, I don’t know…. backwards.
This week, the Patriots are on a much deserved Bye Week along with the Jets, Rams and San Fran. Hopefully, some superstitions prompted the Pats to pack a little English soil or something to take home so that during their next game, they can channel the chaps they were in the Queen’s country.
Tonight, KC goes to San Diego as 9-point road dogs. Man. Both teams have been on brutal losing streaks. Last week, San Diego lost in Cleveland 6-7, and the Chiefs lost at home to Oakland 26-16. Ouchie…big fat weeping Ouch. Now, they face each other and hopefully have taken a big scoop out of the motivational jar…and passed it around….a competitive game is always more entertaining. So far, everything I’ve read points toward San Diego winning this game. They already beat the Chiefs 37-20 in week 4. But, for some reason, I’m liking KC and the points. Forcing turn-overs is a Chief specialty and in my vision, Matt Cassel uses all the negative comments about him and channels them into TD’s with a little help from his D—he also works on holding onto the ball and reduces the amount of his turn-overs by pure conscientiousness, therefore re-building his confidence…..anything to stomp Phillip Rivers – -and Cassel is all I have to work with this week.
Last weekend, Hurricane Sandy came to visit and did a number on the East Coast, more specifically, New York City. Our hearts and prayers go out to all of the people, up and down the coast, struggling with the remnants the storm left behind, and to all the people who have suffered losses, or have been relocated from their homes.
This Sunday, the Giants are scheduled to host Pittsburgh as 3.5-point home favorites in what should be a good old fashioned smash mouth game. I haven’t heard any news about any damage to the stadium, so I’ll go on the assumption that there is none. Both QB’s, Ben and Eli, came out of the 04′ draft and have had somewhat parallel careers, promising to give us a good competitive game with absolutely no clue which way this one will fall. I do know that unless they face off in the big game, they won’t play against each other again for another four years (as a Steeler and a Giant).
Minny goes to Seahawks as 5-point underdogs and WOW! does that line surprise me. Suddenly, Seattle is getting respect…..and with a pretty good team too…..now the question is: How do they handle it? Usually, once the underdog gets flipped to the expected winner, everything changes emotionally for the team….whether they recognize it or not, it happens. Emotion. A very important element in a great football game.
Five home dogs out of fourteen games. That’s a lot. I’m going to analyze this angle for the remainder of today’s football article.
Home Dogs. Imagine. Not only the coaches and the fans, but VEGAS itself…. labeling your team as weak, or unable to fight the stronger team despite being on your own turf. EMOTION people….I’m telling you, it’s a powerful thing…and I have witnessed it assist mediocre teams with big wins over more superior teams…..otherwise known as UPSETS.
Not all of the home dogs are going to win outright – but I’m going to guess at least two, if not three of them do…and it’s going to be the most unexpected teams that will pull the upset. Let’s try and put logic, trends, weather, emotion, talent and injuries all together on these games and determine who will do what…….
- Chicago Bears are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite of 0.5-3.0.
- Over is 4-0 in Bears last 4 games as a road favorite of 3.5-10.0.
- Over is 5-0 in Bears last 5 games in November.
- Tennessee Under is 6-0 in Titans last 6 games in November.
- Under is 4-0-1 in Titans last 5 games as a home favorite of 3.5-10.0.
- Under is 4-0-1 in Titans last 5 games as a home favorite.
- Head to Head No recent Head to Head trends
There is a chance of drizzle, and the temp will be approx. 57 degrees, which is nice football weather – with or without a little rain. Tennessee has a slew of recently injured defensive players, plus a banged up QB in Locker, leaving them to continue with Matt Hasselback….who can be touch and go. The same could be said about Jay Cutler….just not lately….the Bears are riding a 5 game winning streak – and winning big – their only loss thus far to GB in week 2..plus they only have a few players on the injured list, and have been playing well both on the road and at home. I don’t think the Titans can overpower this hot team…..the Bears have been rolling, and although it will come to a halt eventually, my guess is: not this weekend. 69% of public money on a team is sometimes a tip-off to an upset, but I have to ride the hot team on this one.
Next up, is Detroit at Jax as 4-point road favorites. It’s expected to be sunny and hot in FLA on Sunday, and trends indicate that the favored team is 4-0 ATS….but also clearly states that the Lions are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0. Conflicting. There is nothing specifically about Jacksonville to compare to.
Detroit Over is 5-0 in Lions last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
- Over is 4-0 in Lions last 4 games in Week 9.
- Lions are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0.
- Jacksonville Under is 4-0 in Jaguars last 4 games as a home favorite.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Jaguars last 4 games in Week 9.
- Under is 4-0 in Jaguars last 4 games as a favorite of 0.5-3.0.
- Head to Head No recent Head to Head trends
Detroit suffered a handful of injuries as well, but none as damaging as WR Nate Burleson, who broke his leg. What a bummer. On the other side of the field, Jacksonville’s RB Maurice Jones-Drew is out with a foot injury… a huge loss to the Jaguars who are 0-3 at home thus far this season. I want to take Detroit in this game – but, Detroit is 0-3 against the Jaguars…..and despite the Jaguar’s atrocious play this season coupled with their limping line-up, they did play tough in GB last weekend. All the ingredients of a possible upset are evident….including the 73% public money. Here I go, jumping off a cliff.
Home dog number three is Indy hosting Miami as 1-point road favorites. In this match-up, both teams are 4-3 and 1-point is not committing to either team, maybe a very slight lean toward Miami….a missed extra point. Miami has been playing good ball for the past few weeks; out of their past six games, they won four of them, losing the other two in overtime. And Indy shocked everyone with their wins in weeks 2 and 4 over Minny and GB, respectively. QB Andrew Luck seems to be solid and settling into his new role as head horse….however, every single trend points to Miami winning this game……and being the trend girl that I am, I’ve gotta go with my trends….read em’ and weep:
Miami Dolphins are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games in November.
- Dolphins are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games on fieldturf.
- Dolphins are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog of 3.5-10.0.
- Indianapolis Colts are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games in November.
- Under is 5-0 in Colts last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Under is 4-0 in Colts last 4 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Head to Head Road team is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.
- Dolphins are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings in Indianapolis.
- Over is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings.
- Miami it is. (54% of public money – much better percentage).
Baltimore will go to their divisional rival’s house in Cleveland as 3.5-point road favorites. I’m usually pretty Dennis Leary of divisional road favorites as the teams tend to know each other quite well. The trends indicate a slight Brown advantage:
Baltimore Over is 4-0 in Ravens last 4 games as a favorite of 0.5-3.0.
- Ravens are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 vs. AFC.
- Ravens are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
- Cleveland Under is 5-0-1 in Browns last 6 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game.
- Over is 5-0 in Browns last 5 games in Week 9.
- Browns are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. AFC North.
- Head to Head Ravens are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings in Cleveland.
- Road team is 6-0 ATS in their last 6 meetings.
- Under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings.
Last weekend, the Texans derailed Baltimore’s four game winning streak with a massive 43-13 lashing in Houston and Cleveland held onto a 1-point lead in their 7-6 home victory to San Diego. One team coming off a win and the other off a loss…usually slight motivational lean toward the team coming off the loss.
There is a 35% chance of rain or snow – - which both teams are accustomed to. Historically, both in Cleveland and in Baltimore; the Ravens have won 9 of their 10 games since 2007. BUT, the Browns are getting a couple of Defensive players back and the Ravens have lost a couple of key Defensive players. The Browns are slowly improving, their QB is green, but learning, and their D is compensating. I am leaning toward the home team in this one….as crazy and unorthodox as that may seem….the point that pushed me completely onto the Brown side is the 73% of public money on Baltimore – - too many people thinking it’s in the bag.
Our final team to discuss will be Denver at Cincy as 3.5-point road favorites. The weather shouldn’t be a factor, in fact, it’s forecast as clear and sunny. I’m wondering if Cincy will be more motivated coming off a Bye week and if Denver will be slightly deflated with a short week. Last weekend, the Broncos beat NO 34-14 in Sunday Night’s Prime Time. During their past six games, the Bengals had a three week winning streak immediately followed by a three game losing streak, with a Bye last weekend to re-group. The trends do nothing but confuse the issue…..prepare to be conflicted:
Denver Broncos are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU win of more than 14 points.
- Over is 5-0 in Broncos last 5 games as a road favorite of 3.5-10.0.
- Over is 4-0 in Broncos last 4 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Cincinnati Bengals are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games on fieldturf.
- Over is 4-0 in Bengals last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Over is 5-0 in Bengals last 5 games as a home underdog of 3.5-10.0.
- Head to Head Underdog is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.
- Road team is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
With 69% of public money on Denver, I’m still conflicted….sometimes the public wins, otherwise people would stop betting. I like Denver to win, but something is nibbling at me saying “don’t discount those Bengals”…. I am undecided on this one. Sorry. Flip a coin.
Well, that’s it folks. Enjoy your pigskin this weekend, or your Bye week; whichever floats your boat….and may all your fantasy teams prevail!
Picks: Jax +4; Chicago -3.5; Minny +5; Miami -3.5; Cleveland +3.5;