The week of the DIVISION BATTLES……..
November 30, 2012
Week 13 brings us numerous Divisional Match-Ups– seven to be exact. Most of the time, when divisional teams play each other – even the most hideous somehow step up. It’s more competitive, more intense, more personal, and most importantly…..more Familiar. Let’s break em’ down.
The first big D Fight happens tonight (Thursday) when Atlanta hosts New Orleans as 3.5-point home favorites. Surprisingly, the public is all over New Orleans. Let’s think about this a minute people. Atlanta has been on FIRE thus far this season – Matty Ice nothing, more like Matty Hotcha….The Falcon’s only loss so far this season was in New Orleans 27-31 and it came down to the final two minutes with Atlanta on NO’s 2-yard line, going for it on fourth down and getting stuffed. New Orleans got lucky. Last week, the Falcons barely squeaked out a win at TB 24-23; so, my guess is they don’t fiddle around….they come home, they go to work and they take the Saints apart…..limb by limb.
Our own boys will be in Miami as 9-point road favorites. Man, I feel like a broken record. I know that the Pats came back like a big ball of fire, first while hosting Indy in week 11 and winning 59-24, and then last week in New York, they trampled the poor men in green 49-19….and that’s great. But, something is nibbling at me…..9-points? Usually, once I get comfortable with the high scoring Patriots, they go back to fight it out games. I’m going against the tide here and taking the points. I think the Pats win, maybe by a touchdown but not more. Let’s talk about Miami – although their record is 5-6, four of those six losses were by three points. I’m taking the points…don’t be haters.
Minny at Green Bay (-9.5). Ooof, that’s a lot of chalk. These teams have serious history and do not like each other very much. Plus, my beloved Packers have taken a hit in the Defense department…..(S) Woodson and (LB) Matthews; are only two of numerous on the injured list, but in my opinion, they are the most crucial players out with injuries. The pressure is on the kid, because a loss here can spiral GB’s season right down the crapper. Minny has been playing a spotty season at best. They have some valiant wins, but a lot of sloppy losses too. The Vikings also have their own defensive trouble with their maniac Jared Allen out with a shoulder injury. I’m taking the points on this one. I have faith in the kid….plus the trends read pretty and look to fall my way.
Minnesota Under is 6-0 in Vikings last 6 games as a favorite of 10.5 or greater. Vikings are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite of 0.5-3.0. Over is 4-0 in Vikings last 4 games in December.
Green Bay Over is 4-0 in Packers last 4 games following a ATS loss. Over is 4-0 in Packers last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Packers are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a S.U. loss.
Head to Head Over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Green Bay. Over is 7-1 in the last 8 meetings. Vikings are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 meetings in Green Bay.
Next up to discuss is San Fran traveling to St. Louie as 7-point road favorites. Really? Are people looking at the same information as me? Am I crazy? The last game these two played, was in San Francisco and ended 24-24; the first tie since 2008. What? Now, two weeks later, in their own home, the Rams warrant a 7-point lead? Well, I’m picking St. Louie. They are 3-3 at home so I guess I have a 50/50 shot at getting this right. Follow if you dare.
Houston (-6) at Tennessee is next on the chopping block. I would think Houston would deserve more points as a road favorite due to their record, but I must have missed something. Hmmm. 79% of the public are picking Houston; as would be my first instinct too – - after doing a little digging…..I found absolutely nothing. Houston has had one loss this season, to GB in mid-October, and haven’t given any indication they plan on slowing down. Tennessee has been sporadic at best and downright rotten at times…..this seems too easy…..it feels like a trap but I don’t know how. I’m going to play it safe and go with the public on this one…they DO win sometimes.
Finally, we have the divisional square of Philly at Dallas (-10.5) and Giants at Washington (+1). Let’s take Philly-Dallas first. 10.5-points? What the heck happened to Philly? Not that I’m too surprised, anyone who is cruel and vicious to dogs ultimately will fail in the end…..but 10.5-points to Dallas? What have they done that’s so spectacular? Granted, since their Bye week, Philly has yet to win a game, or even lose a close one…and on 11/11, Dallas did beat them up pretty good 38-23 – but, the Boys themselves were coming off a two game losing streak. Fom what I can gather from the screen, Philly started to implode before Vick went out with a concussion last time these two teams met in week 10….three weeks ago, when Philly was only on a five game losing streak. Add two more. Ouch. Philly is a mess. What choice do I have but to go with the Boys? Why do I feel that somehow, from somewhere, the Eagles will pull something off? All they have to do is rock Tony Romo a little and he gets all flustered and chokes. Guffaw. Everyone knows that. I’m torn and twisted about this one and over-thinking it. Those Cowboys manage to screw up a free lunch, and the Eagles are a bunch of stooges with a concussed Psycho at the realm. Flip it Folks.
Finally, let’s tackle the Giants and the Redskins. Close spread. Washington getting one point at home. Hmmmm. Interesting. Let’s break it down. Washington was on a three game losing streak, until they had their Bye, regrouped, then came out and won two consecutive….Philly (31-6) and Dallas (38-31) – all in D family…..how cozy. The Skins have already lost to the Giants in week 7 – - in a close 27-23, down to the wire fight. Eli got the ball with a little more than a minute on the clock and ended up tossing a 77-yard touchdown to Victor Cruz to become the hero of the day. That must have stung sharp for the Skins and if they lose this weekend, they will have been division-ally swept by the Giants, hence the 1-point…..tricky Vegas…..they don’t have a clue. I’m going with Washington +1 at home…..roll the dice baby.
Okay folks, that’s all I have for you. I wish you all a warm, cozy weekend, with lots of pigskin and maybe a big Sunday dinner….time for lunch ha ha!
Picks: Atlanta -3.5; St. Louie +7; Wash +1; GB-9.5 (oof); Houston -6 ……I’m usually a dog girl – so 3 favorites makes me leery…..but that’s what I got.